I’ve come to peace with the Lions’ selection of Matthew Stafford as the top pick in the NFL Draft last weekend. For one thing, I can’t really argue against him, because as much as I might like to pretend otherwise, I am not a skilled evaluator of elite QB prospects. My reservations had to do with the Lions’ track record in the draft generally and particularly with quarterbacks, and with the potentially devastating effects missing with the top pick.

Those reservations are still, you know, reserved. But I also acknowledge that maybe Stafford will be the playmaker that the Lions need. And the pick makes a lot of sense for Jim Schwartz, who by picking his franchise QB now, can let Stafford sit for a year and then get some game experience before Schwartz’s third season, when he will be expected to deliver a winner.

Plus there’s a side benefit: by spending the top pick on a guy who (I hope) won’t play much this season, the Lions likely won’t improve as much in the short term as they would have with an immediate-impact draft pick. And that means better draft position next year.

But the Lions do need playmakers from this draft class. I think the magic number is four, not counting Stafford. That means Delmas, Pettigrew, a kick returner and somebody else. Hopefully Williams and Levy are stars, but the idea is that, should one of those top guys go bust, that’s mitigated by a pleasant surprise like the big DT Hill.

And for all the talk about how it takes years to evaluate a draft class, we should have a decent first impression soon. I’m interested to see who stands out at the minicamp this weekend.

Interesting update from Tom Kowalski. He says the Lions have agreed to terms with Aaron Curry and will sign/draft him unless Matthew Stafford agrees to the team’s contract demands. Of course, I say ‘Aim high, Stafford! Don’t compromise!’

But regardless of who the pick is, I like this tactic from the Lions’ management. There are reports that Stafford has been telling friends he’s getting $40 million guaranteed — a monster contract. As Peter King points out, that would far outstrip the deals for either of the last two picks, OT Jake Long and QB JaMarcus Russell. Russell held out for forever before getting $32.5 million from the Raiders. Why would the Lions happily sign off on a contract for $40 million guaranteed several days before the draft? Turns out they’re not, which seems wise.

If none of the top candidates are a clear top choice, then the Lions may as well play the potential picks against each other in negotiations. And if Curry is willing to take a reasonable deal, that’s great news — both because I hope Detroit signs/drafts Curry, and because that represents some serious leverage with Stafford.

Matthew Stafford is close to a contract agreement with the Lions, according to Dave Birkett. The Lions are denying it, but Dave seems confident in his sources. And usually once the reports start swirling, it’s a matter of time. (Unless it’s Tim Floyd going to Arizona.)

One last time, my objections:

1. The Lions need to get this pick right, so overpaying for an impact OT or exceptional LB makes much more sense to me than taking a risk on an inconsistent prospect just because he plays quarterback.
2. I’d rather bring a young QB into a better situation — better O-line, better defense. Though in this case, at least he could sit behind the apparently improved Daunte Culpepper. And with Calvin Johnson, Kevin Smith, Gosder Cherilus et al., the offense is not devoid of young talent. Though this begs the question, if Culpepper returns to Pro Bowl form this year, will Stafford turn into Aaron Rodgers? (Then again, maybe that’s a good thing.)
3. Stafford is skilled but inconsistent. This means one possible outcome is that he will show enough to linger as a developmental prospect for many years, but never quite put it all together, which reminds me of Joey Harrington and gives me a headache.
4. The Lions need help on the field. And need a middle linebacker. You should get a star player with the top pick, even in this year’s sketchy draft. So tell me again why we wouldn’t take the star linebacker?
5. And why is nobody pointing out that the Lions will draft high again next year, when a bumper crop of quarterbacks should be available? I mean, if they improve dramatically, they’ll still be 5-11 or 6-10 or something like that, and picking in or near the top 10. Colt McCoy! Sam Bradford! I don’t even know that those guys are better than Stafford, I just know they’ll be available.

Second, my refutation.

1. Mike O’Hara has practically been running a Matt Stafford PR Campaign, buying into Mel Kiper’s argument that the Lions have to draft a QB is a reasonable candidate is available. So Stafford, as the top candidate, merely has to not disqualify himself and the Lions are morally obligated to draft him. Huh? If you’re not sure Stafford is an impact player, then take an impact player like Curry, Jason Smith or Eugene Monroe. I mean, are there any Lions fans out there who wish Oakland hadn’t followed these guys’ advice two years ago, when the Raiders took the top QB, JaMarcus Russell, over the consensus top player, Calvin Johnson? (That’s how I console myself, with the notion that the Lions got the de facto #1 pick two years ago and didn’t screw it up.)

And last, my consolation.

• There is always the chance that Stafford will be a QB superstar. Everyone seems to agree that he’s got all the skills, and he saw enough game action at Georgia that I’m willing to buy the argument that the underclassman-QBs-always-bust rule doesn’t really apply to him. And unlike the Joey debacle, he seems unlikely to be thrust into the lineup before he’s ready. Bonus points if the Lions sign him before the draft, because a holdout would be another QB development-killer.

But just remember that the Lions have a serious hole at MLB. If they ink Stafford, let’s hope they get a shot at either Rey Maualuga at #20 or James Laurinitis at #33. (My preferred strategy there would be Peria Jerry at #20 and then Laurinitis. The Lions’ need at MLB is for a solid playmaker, and I think the former Buckeye can provide that.) (Wait, did I just inadvertently make an argument against Aaron Curry?)

TheOnlyColors.com launched today — a new MSU super-blog that aims to set the standard for Spartan-centric blogging. I’m one of five guys who will be contributing to the site.

I’m excited. Please stop over and check it out.

In related news, the Mitten isn’t going anywhere (and in fact will be soon recovering from its post-NCAA daze and petitioning Martin Mayhew not to draft Matt Stafford), but the college sports coverage is. My MSU content will be running over at the new site, and so I figure the Mitten will refocus on the Lions, Pistons and Tigers.

One more time, check it out! Bookmark it! TheOnlyColors.com!

This one would be an upset.

My sense against going into the games against Louisville and UConn was that MSU would probably win. Not probably as in ‘no problem,’ but probably as in ‘the chance is slightly greater than 50 percent.’ Tonight I’m putting the odds at below fifty-fifty, but they’re not infinitesimal, either, and I can definitely envision the Spartans pulling this off.

The Tar Heels seem to counteract some of Michigan State’s strengths pretty effectively. For instance, the question regarding Kalin Lucas isn’t whether he’ll dominate, but whether he can mitigate the effectiveness of Ty Lawson. Ditto Goran Suton and Tyler Hansbrough. But Suton and Hansbrough on the court isn’t the radical mismatch it is in terms of national perception. Hansbrough has the resume, but at this point both of these guys are probably late first round / early second round draft picks, and I don’t think it’s a huge mismatch for Carolina. I expect Lucas to fare far better than he did in Round One, though I’m worried because I think Kalin is still trying to figure out how to be effective when he doesn’t have a significant quickness advantage. (He struggled against Purdue’s Lewis Jackson, for instance.) And for anyone who says Michigan State doesn’t have a superstar, I’ll direct their attention to the bench. I expect Tom Izzo to come up with a great gameplan and out-coach Roy Williams just as he’s done in each game of this tournament against a pretty impressive group of coaches. Outmaneuvering the likes of Tim Floyd, Bill Self, Rick Pitino and Jim Calhoun isn’t just solid, it’s a virtuouso performance. If Izzo can find a leg up for MSU against Carolina, he enters the “best coaches ever” discussion.

The keys to the game are, first, wearing down North Carolina with depth and hustle. If MSU is defending, rebounding and pursuing loose balls they way it did against UConn, they’ll be tough to stop. (UNC is not as good a rebounding team as Connecticut.) Second, State’s perimeter defense needs to have its best game in order to limit Carolina’s effectiveness from three-point land, where the Tar Heels excel. Third, the Spartans need to find the right balance between aggressiveness and carefulness, limiting turnovers and bad shots. Last, I don’t think State wins unless its jump shots are falling. Suton, Allen, Summers, Walton, Morgan, Lucas, Lucious . . . five of those guys need to hit at least a shot or two outside the line, and a couple of them will need to get hot.

Go State!

Final Four day! Here’s my brief analysis. I’m in st louis and typing on a phone, so sorry in advance for misspellings etc.

I like this matchup for state. The key is depth, not just of rotation guys but offensive threats. But the key is raymar Morgan. He doesn’t need to score twenty, but he needs to appear often enough as a threat that Connecticut has to deal with him. He poses a matchup problem for them. If he’s playing well they’ll have to put Stanley Robinson on him, meaning Robinson won’t be available to check suton. So thabeet will have suton instead, and I think goran can pull him away from the basket.

Defensively, john gasaway said it well this week when he said he assumed a j price would have a bad game because travis Walton is guarding him. The key then is kemba walker . . . And how well guys like chris Allen and Durrell summers do at the offensive end. I’m picking state.

One other note, I was hopeful the lions would go after jay cutler, but now that I see the pricetag I’m glad they did not. It’s steep for Chicago and makes no sense for the lions given the number of holes they need to address.