If you were at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, you know you saw an ugly game against Northwestern. You saw driving rain, muffed punts, blocked kicks, more rain, wide-open Wildcat receiver Eric Peterman racing through the Michigan secondary to catch the game-winning 53-yard touchdown pass, and Nick Sheridan tossing an interception in the endzone in the fourth quarter to kill a potential game-tying drive. You saw a 21-14 loss.

This was a big loss because it came a week after Michigan’s road win against Minnesota, and two straight wins against upper-division Big Ten teams would have sent the Wolverines into the offseason with momentum regardless of what happens against Ohio State. Now Michigan is back to square one.

I’ve been sifting through old box scores as part of the series on Mark Dantonio’s impact with Michigan State, so I looked at the box score of this Michigan game with the same criteria in mind. The Wolverines outgained Northwestern 264-257, a virtual toss-up. Turnovers were even. Penalties weren’t a major factor. This was the kind of game we expect Michigan to find a way to win, especially against a less established program like Northwestern’s.

It’s true that a victory against Ohio State would be helpful in mitigating the damage. But it’s a much taller order than this game, which was well within reach.