In the second installment of the Mitten’s Capital One Bowl preview, let’s look at the matchups for Michigan State and Georgia. Once again we’ll be consulting UGA expert Jason Barbas in addition to the Official Mitten predictions/opinions.

(In case you missed it, here’s Part One. And in case you want to skip ahead, here’s Part Three.)

What will happen when Georgia runs the ball:

Sports Mitten: Bad things for MSU. In ten games against BCS competition, the Spartans allowed eight different hundred-yard rushers. If there’s reason to hope they’ve improved, it’s that they weren’t gashed quite so badly in their last two games, holding Purdue’s Kory Sheets to 93 yards and Penn State’s Evan Royster to 79 yards. But before we get excited about “limiting” Royster, it’s only fair to point out that a) Michigan State stacked the box and encouraged the Nittany Lions to throw, allowing Daryll Clark to throw for 341 yards and four touchdowns, both career highs by a wide margin; and b) Royster still averaged 6.6 yards per carry—he just didn’t get the ball much.

In other words, an All-SEC back like Knowshon Moreno, combined with a flashy Georgia passing game, looks like very bad news for Michigan State. The best case scenario is probably something like the Iowa game, when Shonn Greene gained 155 yards against MSU but never broke one for longer than 18 yards, and the Spartans took advantage of three Iowa turnovers and a huge fourth-down tackle by Adam Decker to win.

Jason Barbas: One of the keys to Georgia’s offensive success over the past two seasons has been Knowshon Moreno. It will be no different for this game. Georgia runs a lot of play-action pass, and that depends on running first. Georgia has not lost this year when Moreno carries the ball at least 20 times. Moreno will have another 100-yard game as he tries to impress scouts before likely entering the NFL draft. This is mostly Moreno’s show, but if the game gets out of hand one way or another, or Georgia ends up running the ball more than 25 times, we may see a little bit of highly-touted youngsters Caleb King and Richard Samuel.

What will happen when Georgia passes?

JB: Matthew Stafford is a big-time talent with an NFL-ready arm, or so the scouts would have us believe. If NFL teams could draft 17-year olds, Matt Stafford would have never made it to Athens. This year, though, Stafford’s numbers have begun to catch up with his legendary potential. Stafford is the best passer in the SEC (note: Tebow is not a passer, although I hear he just cured cancer), and this year has a lot of talent at wide receiver. That talent includes freshman sensation A.J. Green at WR. People call Green the Randy Moss to Julio Jones’ Terrell Owens (Jones is the freshman receiver for Alabama). Georgia also runs a lot of screen plays, so expect Moreno to get a lot of touches here, too.

SM: Based on MSU’s performance in the Penn State game, combined with the glittering reputations of the skill players in Georgia’s passing game, we should probably expect Matthew Stafford to throw for four or five hundred yards with several touchdowns before he’s pulled with the game well in hand sometime in the second quarter with the game. Seriously, there’s a fine chance Georgia will torch MSU through the air. But I don’t think it’s automatic. I’ll explain why.

I expect Michigan State defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi to stack the box like he did against Penn State, preferring the risk of big plays in the passing game to a slow, predictable death on the ground. Part of that decision is a bet that with a few weeks to heal and gameplan, the Spartans’ young, banged-up secondary could make a decent showing against Georgia. If Ross Weaver, Chris L. Rucker and the rest of MSU’s corners can slow Green and Massaquoi in single coverage, the outlook gets a lot brighter, as Narduzzi can send LB Greg Jones and SS Otis Wiley blitzing to pressure Stafford and support the run defense. Danny Fortener, an emerging playmaker at free safety, is also key to State’s hopes.

For the second straight year, MSU has a bowl game matchup against a quarterback who’s near the top of a lot of NFL draft boards. But unlike Matt Ryan last year for Boston College, Matthew Stafford isn’t a finished product with four years of experience. Though he’s come into his own this season, he’s a scout favorite because of his makeup and mechanics, not his track record of leading Georgia to victory. In fact, during the five-week midseason stretch that constituted the heart of Georgia’s SEC schedule (Alabama, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, LSU, Florida), Stafford had more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (seven).

Michigan State’s defense might not be as strong as its counterparts at some of those SEC powers, but it’s not a foregone conclusion that Stafford will light up MSU.

What will happen when Michigan State runs the ball?

JB: Now for the bad news. Georgia gave up 409 yards rushing to the “triple threat” running attack of the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Now, who can you name any of the leading rushers for Tech? I can’t, and I’m from Georgia. But I do know who Javon Ringer is. Also, Tech made six pass attempts in that game, so the Dawgs knew what was coming and still couldn’t stop it—UGA lost 45-42. Georgia also had trouble stopping Kentucky, LSU, Alabama, and Florida on the ground. If MSU brings a vanilla running attack, the Dawgs should be able to stop it. But if they mix it up at all, the underachieving Bulldog defense will get confused and miss tackles and formations.

SM: Casual MSU fans who’ve heard Mark Dantonio is an old school coach are always surprised when State goes for it on fourth down and short. But Dantonio isn’t the over-cautious kind of traditionalist, he’s the run-the-ball-at-all-costs kind. I’d venture there’s nothing he enjoys more as a football coach than the moments late in games when it becomes clear that State can impose its will on opponents in the running game. The mentality behind sending Javon Ringer up the middle on second and long is the same as the one behind a power run on fourth and two: Dantonio thinks his guys can win the battle up front, and he dares his opponents to try and stop it.

Jason thinks the Bulldogs can handle a vanilla running attack, and there’s not much fancy in what Michigan State does with its ground game. But Georgia will see Javon Ringer again and again, left, right and center, until it can’t stand the taste of vanilla any longer. That will be true as long as the game is close, regardless of Ringer’s effectiveness. And against Georgia’s inconsistent defense, that approach should ultimately result in some big plays.

The key, though, is keeping the game close. Part of the reason that a 9-3 team like Michigan State lost so badly to Penn State and Ohio State is that the Nittany Lions and Buckeyes went up big early, forcing MSU to pass. That negated the Spartans’ strength, which isn’t just its running game but about wearing down the defensive front by running the ball over and over.

The losses to OSU and PSU were the only games in which Ringer carried fewer than 20 times. This is a guy who’s getting the ball an average of 31 times per game this season—if he’s under 20, that’s like half his typical workload. For the Spartans to win, they’ve got to stay close enough to let Ringer wear down the Bulldogs.

What will happen when Michigan State passes?

SM: If it happens too often, State will be in trouble. But in controlled amounts, State’s passing game could be the best it’s been all season, because Mark Dell is close to 100% healthy for the first time since Blair White’s emergence, and combined with Charlie Gantt and B.J. Cunningham (not to mention intriguing freshman Keshawn Martin), MSU has a lot of weapons for QB Brian Hoyer to work with.

But man, Brian Hoyer. In MSU’s last three games against elite competition—Boston College in the 2007 Champs Sports Bowl, then the OSU and PSU games this season—the senior QB has struggled. Mightily. As in, completed less than half his passes, averaged 121 yards per game (and remember, these are play-from-behind, shoot-out type games) and thrown two touchdowns to go with seven picks. (And it doesn’t look good for Hoyer that when his backup, Kirk Cousins, has relieved him in those games, Cousins has hit 74 percent of his passes and matched Hoyer’s total with three TDs.)

If Michigan State is to have a chance against Georgia, it’s going to require a big game from Brian Hoyer. He doesn’t just need to exorcise his big-game demons and turn in a solid performance—he needs to step up and make his last game at MSU one of his best.

JB: I’m not sure what to say here since MSU doesn’t throw much.  That being said, Georgia’s front four on defense haven’t brought much pressure (18 sacks total), and Georgia has had to come on all-out blitzes to get to QBs. Ultimately, Georgia must stack the line and force MSU to beat them with the pass. MSU must spread the Dawgs out and then run, and at least on occasion, try to beat Georgia in one-on-one pass coverage.

How about special teams?

JB: This is a mixed bag for Georgia, although it has been worse lately. Georgia has had problems keeping the ball in-bounds on kick-offs, and has gotten decent results on field goals and punts. Again, tackling and penalties have been problems on kick and punt coverage, and Georgia has given up too much field position.

SM: This is a potential advantage for Michigan State. Brett Swenson is emerging as a star placekicker, whereas Georgia freshman Blair Walsh has struggled, hitting on just fewer than two-thirds of his FG attempts. In the return game, MSU needs Otis Wiley and company to make an impact by advancing the ball, not fumbling it. Freshman Glenn Winston, who looked impressive returning kickoffs until he was dropped down the depth chart following an off-field incident in October, isn’t even listed among the Spartan’s kick returners on the bowl game depth chart. If State needs a big return late, don’t be shocked if Dantonio turns to Javon Ringer.

And that, folks, is Part Two of our preview. Part Three, with our final analysis and game predictions, is coming up shortly, along with a thread where we’ll ask for your best guesses about what will happen on New Year’s Day.

Part One - Part Two - Part Three