Part One – Part Two – Part Three

This is the home stretch, where the Mitten and its Georgia correspondent, Jason Barbas, lay out their predictions for the game. See what you think, then leave a prediction of your own as a comment. After the game, we’ll go back and see who had it right.

What has to happen for Georgia to win?

JB: Georgia needs to have a balanced offensive attack, meaning at least 20 rushes from RB Knowshon Moreno, and it needs to at least tie the turnover battle. Georgia’s turnover margin is minus-2 for the year. The defense needs to tackle and keep the penalties to a minimum, especially in the second half — Georgia has been terrible in the 3rd quarter this year). Primarily, the defense needs to force MSU to throw the ball.

SM: If the Bulldogs can neutralize Javon Ringer, either by stopping him or using quick scores to force State to pass, Georgia will be in the drivers’ seat. At that point, UGA just needs to avoid turnovers and keep enough pressure on Brian Hoyer to keep him from getting in a zone. If the Bulldogs can frustrate Hoyer early, the ghosts of big games past are likely to keep State’s senior QB down.

What has to happen for Michigan State to win?

SM: Michigan State’s best shot on offense is to wear down Georgia’s defense with a punishing, sustained running attack. That means first down is critical, because too many second-and-longs will force MSU out of that game plan. When Brian Hoyer takes his shots, he needs, obviously, to avoid turnovers. But he’ll also have to connect on enough medium- and long-range passes to keep the Bulldogs honest. And when Georgia blitzes, Hoyer will have the opportunity (and necessity) to break some big plays on screen passes to Ringer and quick outs to the receivers.

Defensively, Georgia will pose a huge challenge because its passing game is too good to allow MSU to safely stack the box. Defensive coordinator Pat Narduzzi will probably have to do it anyway, so the key is how well MSU’s secondary contains Georgia’s passing attack. It’s also critical for MSU to get pressure on QB Matthew Stafford, especially when MSU sends extra men to the line. Otis Wiley and company have to force turnovers—it’s hard to see the Spartans winning this game without a takeaway advantage.

JB: MSU must keep Georgia’s offense off the field. That could be easy with 30+ carries from Ringer. MSU can give up yards in the middle of the field and force Georgia to settle for field goals. MSU must counter Georgia’s run-blitzes with screen plays and quick passes. Will Brian Hoyer be up for it? Georgia is undisciplined and will make mistakes. MSU must take advantage of them. Alabama and Florida did this to Georgia and the games got out of hand, even though the total yards were nearly equal for Georgia, Florida and Alabama in those games.

What are the X-Factors?

JB: There are two X-factors for Georgia. First, the let-down factor: Georgia was ranked #1 in the pre-season. Can the team get up for this game when it had hoped for something much more? Second, the NFL draft: the Dawgs will be thinking about what could have been, especially now that Moreno and Stafford have asked the NFL to evaluate their draft status. Will DJ Shockley and David Greene leave a better legacy than Stafford and Moreno? Did Georgia blow its last real chance (at least for the next few years) to make a run for a national championship? All of this will be a distraction. At least Georgia can get another 10-win season. But do players care about that?

SM: I agree, the let-down factor for Georgia is huge. Getting to this game represents a landmark accomplishment for Michigan State, and winning ten games is a big deal for seniors like Brian Hoyer and Javon Ringer who see themselves as helping elevate MSU’s program to the next level. They’ll be ready to play. Georgia, on the other hand, may come out flat. The flip side is that MSU’s two blowout losses against elite teams may have gotten in the Spartans’ heads. Will State be tentative or lose confidence if Georgia gets an early score or turnover? Then there’s the layoff: will MSU be rusty, especially early in the game, because it hasn’t played since Nov. 22? If State comes out flat and Georgia takes advantage, Michigan State could lose control of its game plan and its confidence.

Predictions:

JB: Georgia will show up – or at least the offense will show up. Moreno gets his 100 yards. Stafford gets 275 yards and a lot of NFL-arm talk. Georgia wins if the defense at least gives a C+ effort. Ringer gets a bunch of yards, too. Most of them in the second half, but it’s not enough.  Georgia 35, MSU 24.

SM: Mark Dantonio and Don Treadwell has MSU’s offense well prepared, and the Spartans not only establish Javon Ringer early, but Brian Hoyer looks sharp against a defense that’s not nearly as good as Penn State’s or Ohio State’s. But the defense struggles, and a clock-killing second-half drive seems to salt away the game for Georgia. But Stafford throws a late interception, possibly spooked after the Lions fans in attendance starting chanting for him to be the team’s #1 pick. MSU takes advantage of the turnover and gets Brett Swenson in position for a last minute field goal. He nails it. MSU 28, Georgia 27.

Okay, your turn. What do you think will happen?

Part One – Part Two – Part Three