Bill Raftery didn’t seem to think so when Gus Johnson asked him during yesterday’s MSU-Purdue telecast.

But here’s how it could happen, assuming MSU wins the Big Ten Tournament and picks up two or three more wins against RPI-Top 50 competition (though none against other elite teams) in the process:

• UNC wins the ACC Tournament. When the ranking come out in a couple of hours, I’m assuming MSU will be ranked #7, passing Duke after the Blue Devils’ loss to North Carolina yesterday. The Devils could again jump past the Spartans with an ACC Tourney win, but for our #1 seed scenario let’s say that UNC wins that tournament and gets a #1 seed.
• Louisville doesn’t win the Big East Tournament. The Cardinals are the number one seed, even though they’re ranked lower nationally than Pittsburgh and UConn. Whoever emerges from the likely semifinal game between Pitt and Connecticut has a #1 seed sewn up regardless of the outcome of the title game, so for MSU’s sake it would be helpful if that team could also beat Louisville.
• Oklahoma loses the Big 12 Tournament. It might not even matter, because the Sooners have lost three of five and there’s a chance that MSU will jump past them in this week’s poll. But if Kansas or Missouri wins that tournament, MSU and Oklahoma would have the same number of losses, and MSU would have a vastly superior record down the stretch. It would be hard to put the Sooners ahead of the Spartans.

At that point — and so far I’m not counting on anything surprising to happen — State is no worse than the fifth rated team. In one sense, there’s no point in worrying about it at that point, because the fourth- and fifth-rated teams will be in the same bracket and play each other in the regional finals. But the number two seed could have to play a number three seed in order to advance to the regional finals, and this year there will be some really good 3-seeds, with a noticeable drop-off in the 4-seeds.  To gain that final spot — and keep in mind that I’m using the polls as my guide here, and that the NCAA formulas are shrouded in mystery — MSU would have to pass either Memphis or the loser of the Pittsburgh-UConn game.

We can pretty well count on Memphis to win the Conference USA Tournament and have a bazillion game winning streak against bad teams. Does that make them a shoo-in? Not to me, not when the Tigers’ win over Gonzaga is the only standout victory on their schedule. I think you’d have to give MSU strong consideration as a number-one seed over Memphis, as well as against the loser of the UConn-Pitt game. (If Pitt beats UConn for the third time this season, the Huskies still have an inside track on a top seed, because all four of UConn’s losses would have come against teams ranked in the top 10 at tipoff — three against Pitt and one against Georgetown just before the Hoyas’ season collapsed.)

So even though there’s not much conversation outside of Michigan about MSU getting a top seed, it looks fairly likely to me that it could come down to MSU versus Memphis for the last spot. In that case, it’s the Spartans’ resume, including a tournament championship, against Memphis’ slightly stronger record and vastly lesser schedule. In that case, don’t count the Spartans out.

(And let’s hope that MSU gets a crack at Memphis.)