Have you noticed that the non-Big Ten powerhouse teams seem to win their opening round NCAA games by approximately 50,000 points each? I don’t mean Villanova, obviously, but I’m talking about Carolina winning by 43 yesterday, Connecticut by 56, Oklahoma by 28, and other similar results down through the years. I love and respect the Big Ten, so I don’t mean this as a credit to UNCs of the world, just an observation that while I expect Michigan State to win comfortably tonight, I don’t expect it to be by 40 or 50 points against an NCAA Tournament team. (Please don’t bring up the Spartans’ 118-60 pounding Alcorn State, which finished last in the SWAC at 6-25.)

One reason, of course, is that Big Ten teams are less likely to push the pace, which leads to fewer overall possessions and lower scores. So, I’m interested in what the tempo-free stats guys would have to say on the subject. And it also leads me to wonder about the personality of the Michigan State team we’ll see in Minneapolis and beyond. Because this is a team that can run, and now that they’re not matched up against other defensive-minded, shot clock-grinding Big Ten teams, I wonder if MSU will object to some faster-paced play.

Tonight’s player to watch is Travis Walton. Robert Morris can shoot the 3 and will test Michigan State’s perimeter defense — an off-and-on weakness of this Spartans team. Watch for Walton to limit the opportunities for the Colonials’ Jeremy Chappell. The secondary players to watch are Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. Obviously, the Spartans need those guys to shoot the ball well if State is going to contend for a national title. In fact, though, State needs that and more — it needs Allen and Summers to raise all facets of their games. So against Robert Morris, let’s follow both their FG%s and also their turnovers (State’s other Achilles’ heel) and perimeter defense.

Here’s my bold-yet-qualified prediction: If those two guys play well, by which I mean shoot well, take care of the ball, rebound and defend consistently, State will reach the title game.

It’s a big qualifier, because I’m not sold on the idea that Summers and Allen will deliver. Tonight, we’ll begin to find out.