This one would be an upset.

My sense against going into the games against Louisville and UConn was that MSU would probably win. Not probably as in ‘no problem,’ but probably as in ‘the chance is slightly greater than 50 percent.’ Tonight I’m putting the odds at below fifty-fifty, but they’re not infinitesimal, either, and I can definitely envision the Spartans pulling this off.

The Tar Heels seem to counteract some of Michigan State’s strengths pretty effectively. For instance, the question regarding Kalin Lucas isn’t whether he’ll dominate, but whether he can mitigate the effectiveness of Ty Lawson. Ditto Goran Suton and Tyler Hansbrough. But Suton and Hansbrough on the court isn’t the radical mismatch it is in terms of national perception. Hansbrough has the resume, but at this point both of these guys are probably late first round / early second round draft picks, and I don’t think it’s a huge mismatch for Carolina. I expect Lucas to fare far better than he did in Round One, though I’m worried because I think Kalin is still trying to figure out how to be effective when he doesn’t have a significant quickness advantage. (He struggled against Purdue’s Lewis Jackson, for instance.) And for anyone who says Michigan State doesn’t have a superstar, I’ll direct their attention to the bench. I expect Tom Izzo to come up with a great gameplan and out-coach Roy Williams just as he’s done in each game of this tournament against a pretty impressive group of coaches. Outmaneuvering the likes of Tim Floyd, Bill Self, Rick Pitino and Jim Calhoun isn’t just solid, it’s a virtuouso performance. If Izzo can find a leg up for MSU against Carolina, he enters the “best coaches ever” discussion.

The keys to the game are, first, wearing down North Carolina with depth and hustle. If MSU is defending, rebounding and pursuing loose balls they way it did against UConn, they’ll be tough to stop. (UNC is not as good a rebounding team as Connecticut.) Second, State’s perimeter defense needs to have its best game in order to limit Carolina’s effectiveness from three-point land, where the Tar Heels excel. Third, the Spartans need to find the right balance between aggressiveness and carefulness, limiting turnovers and bad shots. Last, I don’t think State wins unless its jump shots are falling. Suton, Allen, Summers, Walton, Morgan, Lucas, Lucious . . . five of those guys need to hit at least a shot or two outside the line, and a couple of them will need to get hot.

Go State!