Some hope for Spartan fans heading into the Louisville matchup:

I’ve heard several college basketball analysts call this a bad matchup for Michigan State for a couple of reasons that I dispute: style of play and home court advantage. As for style of play, the theory goes that Louisville is a pressing, trapping type of team and Michigan State commits a lot of turnovers and thus is particularly susceptible. Exhibit A is the way MSU struggled against Memphis last year.

Well, maybe that’s right. But here, at least, is an alternate take: MSU has good ball-handlers and great depth, two characteristics it was lacking last season that should help against a press. From what I can tell, State’s propensity for turnovers can be traced more to sloppiness — and not by the top ball-handlers — than bad handles. I think Kalin Lucas & Co. have what it takes to break a press. The thing to avoid is having our sketchier decision-makers in the backcourt on the pressbreak, and for that reason I expect to see Korie Lucious taking a chunk of minutes away from Chris Allen. Travis Walton is another key, because he’s not a great ballhandler or ballhandling decision-maker, but he will be on the floor and need to display some senior smarts. Looking back to the Memphis debacle last year, I think a year of experience for Kalin Lucas will make a big difference — that’s a tough spot for a freshman PG. (But that also means we shouldn’t expect a flawless performance from Korie Lucious.)

As for Louisville’s homecourt advantage, again, maybe. But Indianapolis is squarely in Big Ten country, and I suspect State will be well represented, too.

Of course, the analysts are also talking about Louisville’s superior athleticism, and that could be an issue. Also, the Cards can shoot the 3-ball, and State’s off-and-on perimeter defense will have to show up. So, you know, I’m still nervous.

Nevermind.

I feel like rambling.

The Big East had a great record last weekend at the NCAAs, but don’t forget how highly those teams were seeded. When you’ve got three #1s and two #2’s, all you did so far was avoid being upset — something that those teams did by some fairly narrow margins. I’m not calling the conference overrated, just saying let’s wait one more weekend before we say that the tournament has validated the Big East’s dominant status. . . . So, of course, tonight’s UConn-Purdue matchup, along with a possible Sunday matchup between Michigan State and Louisville, provides the Big Ten with a nice chance to make its own point. The Big Ten’s 6-5 record is better than it looks because the conference has only been favored in five of its games. . . . The Big East is 11-2, but 0nly once has one of its teams been an underdog, and Marquette lost that second round game against Mizzou; the conference’s other loss was Dayton’s upset of West Virginia in the first round.  . . . So the Big Ten has pulled three upsets by seed (Michigan and Wisconsin in the opening round, Purdue in the second) and been upset twice (Illinois and Ohio State, the latter a toss-up 8-9 game) while the Big East has pulled no upsets and been upset once.  . . . Again, I’m not ready to argue for Big Ten supremacy, just saying that to praise the Big East on the basis of its 11-2 record seems a little sketchy . . . .

Poor Scott Williamson, the veteran reliever that the Tigers brought in as a non-roster invitee. He looks better than he has in years and has generally pitched well, but one bad outing threw off his numbers. His stats were coming back into line after several good games in a row, but yesterday he had another disaster (five earned runs in one inning). Ironically, he picked up the win in Detroit’s 10-6 comeback victory over the Mets. . . . The Tigers’ other veteran non-roster FA pickup, Juan Rincon, seems to have earned himself a spot on the team. He hasn’t given up a run all spring, a streak he extended yesterday. I get the feeling some fans — and columnists — would rather see as many prospects as possible in the Pen, but to me another solid veteran would be ideal. So the fact that Rincon is making himself impossible to cut is nice. . . .

You may have noticed I haven’t written much about the Pistons or Wings. . . . Me, too. . . . In the Wings’ case, it’s because I’m not much of a hockey fan. . . . In the Pistons’ case, that’s not true. I love the NBA and I love the Pistons. But this season has been painful to watch, and I feel perfectly justified in ignoring it as a fan and a writer. . . .

It’s no revelation that I don’t want the Lions to draft Georgia QB Matthew Stafford, preferring that the team draft any of the other candidates for the spot — OTs Jason Smith (Baylor) or Eugene Monroe (Virginia) or LB Aaron Curry (Wake Forest). But the Detroit media seems resigned to Stafford as the best choice, apparently persuaded by the likes of Mel Kiper and Gil Brandt, both of whom seem strangely invested in Stafford. Well, not so strange considering that Kiper’s been touting Stafford as a future #1 pick since Stafford was in high school, and Brandt and Stafford were neighbors in Dallas. . . . I don’t buy the need-based argument that Lions must take Stafford because he’s the top QB available and he’s not doing anything to disqualify himself (which sounds kind of like the Big East argument). Not only do the Lions have the opportunity to draft a franchise player at a different position, but let’s not forget about Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy and all the top prospects coming out next year. Considering that I still expect the Lions to be drafting in the Top 10, it seems likely they’ll have a crack at one of those guys. And that QB’s chances to succeed will be much higher if he’s playing next to a franchise left tackle. . . .

Have you noticed that the non-Big Ten powerhouse teams seem to win their opening round NCAA games by approximately 50,000 points each? I don’t mean Villanova, obviously, but I’m talking about Carolina winning by 43 yesterday, Connecticut by 56, Oklahoma by 28, and other similar results down through the years. I love and respect the Big Ten, so I don’t mean this as a credit to UNCs of the world, just an observation that while I expect Michigan State to win comfortably tonight, I don’t expect it to be by 40 or 50 points against an NCAA Tournament team. (Please don’t bring up the Spartans’ 118-60 pounding Alcorn State, which finished last in the SWAC at 6-25.)

One reason, of course, is that Big Ten teams are less likely to push the pace, which leads to fewer overall possessions and lower scores. So, I’m interested in what the tempo-free stats guys would have to say on the subject. And it also leads me to wonder about the personality of the Michigan State team we’ll see in Minneapolis and beyond. Because this is a team that can run, and now that they’re not matched up against other defensive-minded, shot clock-grinding Big Ten teams, I wonder if MSU will object to some faster-paced play.

Tonight’s player to watch is Travis Walton. Robert Morris can shoot the 3 and will test Michigan State’s perimeter defense — an off-and-on weakness of this Spartans team. Watch for Walton to limit the opportunities for the Colonials’ Jeremy Chappell. The secondary players to watch are Durrell Summers and Chris Allen. Obviously, the Spartans need those guys to shoot the ball well if State is going to contend for a national title. In fact, though, State needs that and more — it needs Allen and Summers to raise all facets of their games. So against Robert Morris, let’s follow both their FG%s and also their turnovers (State’s other Achilles’ heel) and perimeter defense.

Here’s my bold-yet-qualified prediction: If those two guys play well, by which I mean shoot well, take care of the ball, rebound and defend consistently, State will reach the title game.

It’s a big qualifier, because I’m not sold on the idea that Summers and Allen will deliver. Tonight, we’ll begin to find out.

As Tigers’ fans fixate warily on the team’s starting pitching (my prediction is that Dontrelle Willis pulls it together just enough to earn the last slot and hold off Rick Porcello, while neither Nate Robertson nor Zach Miner make the roster as starters or relievers), it’s easy to overlook the bright side: the bullpen looks pretty good.

• The back end doesn’t look like a trainwreck. I’ll grant you that Brandon Lyon’s 1.93 ERA is deceiving, considering he’s given up four unearned runs and been hit fairly hard. But Fernando Rodney has been solid and Joel Zumaya looks to be on track. It’s hardly the best-case scenario, especially considering that Joel Zumaya and Dr. James Andrews have appeared in the same sentences, but it’s fairly positive.
• The veteran FAs look great. The big plus is Juan Rincon, who has been lights-out: only two hits and a walk in six innings. He’d be a huge addition who would factor into the equation in the late innings. Scott Williamson has had a couple of good outings to go with one disastrous one. We’re getting to the point in camp where, traditionally, Matt Mantei’s arm falls off, so the fact that Rincon and Williamson don’t seem to be faltering is a big plus.
• Bobby Seay hasn’t been scored on, and in fact his WHIP is a very solid 1.07 through five innings.
• Prospects Ryan Perry, Freddy Dolsi and Casey Fien have each been very solid. One the other hand, Rule V pickup Kyle Bloom seems a pretty safe bet to be returned to the Pirates. (C James Skelton, whom the Diamondbacks took from Detroit in the same draft, has just one hit in 12 ABs for the D-Backs this spring, so it may be a wash. Skelton does have four walks, though, so his OBP isn’t terrible. Still, he looks likely to be returned to the Detroit organization as Arizona zeroes in on Miguel Montero and Chris Snyder as its catchers.)

While you wait to figure out who will start games for the Tigers this season, at least take heart that, if the spring games are any indication, the bullpen may cause you less stress than a year ago. Lyon, Zumaya, Rodney, Rincon and Seay, with two long relief guys to be named later, seems infinitely more solid than a year ago.

Bill Raftery didn’t seem to think so when Gus Johnson asked him during yesterday’s MSU-Purdue telecast.

But here’s how it could happen, assuming MSU wins the Big Ten Tournament and picks up two or three more wins against RPI-Top 50 competition (though none against other elite teams) in the process:

• UNC wins the ACC Tournament. When the ranking come out in a couple of hours, I’m assuming MSU will be ranked #7, passing Duke after the Blue Devils’ loss to North Carolina yesterday. The Devils could again jump past the Spartans with an ACC Tourney win, but for our #1 seed scenario let’s say that UNC wins that tournament and gets a #1 seed.
• Louisville doesn’t win the Big East Tournament. The Cardinals are the number one seed, even though they’re ranked lower nationally than Pittsburgh and UConn. Whoever emerges from the likely semifinal game between Pitt and Connecticut has a #1 seed sewn up regardless of the outcome of the title game, so for MSU’s sake it would be helpful if that team could also beat Louisville.
• Oklahoma loses the Big 12 Tournament. It might not even matter, because the Sooners have lost three of five and there’s a chance that MSU will jump past them in this week’s poll. But if Kansas or Missouri wins that tournament, MSU and Oklahoma would have the same number of losses, and MSU would have a vastly superior record down the stretch. It would be hard to put the Sooners ahead of the Spartans.

At that point — and so far I’m not counting on anything surprising to happen — State is no worse than the fifth rated team. In one sense, there’s no point in worrying about it at that point, because the fourth- and fifth-rated teams will be in the same bracket and play each other in the regional finals. But the number two seed could have to play a number three seed in order to advance to the regional finals, and this year there will be some really good 3-seeds, with a noticeable drop-off in the 4-seeds.  To gain that final spot — and keep in mind that I’m using the polls as my guide here, and that the NCAA formulas are shrouded in mystery — MSU would have to pass either Memphis or the loser of the Pittsburgh-UConn game.

We can pretty well count on Memphis to win the Conference USA Tournament and have a bazillion game winning streak against bad teams. Does that make them a shoo-in? Not to me, not when the Tigers’ win over Gonzaga is the only standout victory on their schedule. I think you’d have to give MSU strong consideration as a number-one seed over Memphis, as well as against the loser of the UConn-Pitt game. (If Pitt beats UConn for the third time this season, the Huskies still have an inside track on a top seed, because all four of UConn’s losses would have come against teams ranked in the top 10 at tipoff — three against Pitt and one against Georgetown just before the Hoyas’ season collapsed.)

So even though there’s not much conversation outside of Michigan about MSU getting a top seed, it looks fairly likely to me that it could come down to MSU versus Memphis for the last spot. In that case, it’s the Spartans’ resume, including a tournament championship, against Memphis’ slightly stronger record and vastly lesser schedule. In that case, don’t count the Spartans out.

(And let’s hope that MSU gets a crack at Memphis.)